“If I am elected, I don't want to wake up on the morning of November 9 and have to ask myself, 'What in the world do I do now?'”
JFK Note to Clark Clifford, August 1960
Dear Friends,
For all but a few hundred Americans, the long political contest ends -- presumably -- one week from tonight (pause for applause.)
But for those few hundred, new challenges and two important numbers -- 77 and 100 -- present themselves the very next morning.
77: the time until Inauguration Day 2009, a fleeting presidential transition period of eleven weeks.
100: as in, "The First 100 Days,” the political trope that comes to us from FDR's presidency in the early months of 1933.
No matter which ticket prevails, the new President-elect won't face JFK's predicament. That's because each campaign has operational teams focused on these 177 days: the Obama-Biden group is led by former Clinton chief-of-staff and think tank CEO John Podesta; and the McCain-Palin team is headed up by former Nixon and Ford presidential assistant and lobbying firm CEO William Timmons.
Both teams will benefit from the considerable contributions of scores of scholars and practitioners who have collaborated on the transition and launch phases of a half-century of presidencies, and whose findings and recommendations provide a range of thoughtful options about how best to manage these two critical phases of a new presidency.
These contributors include the Center for American Progress, Center for Excellence in Government, Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, National Academy of Public Administration, Partnership for Public Service -- and John Hamre, former Deputy Secretary of Defense and now CEO at Center for Strategic and International Studies, the American Enterprise Institute's renowned political scholar, Norman Ornstein, and many academics, including American University's, Dr. James Thurber, Colby College professor Calvin McKenzie, and others.
Among the most seasoned of these experts is Stephen Hess, senior fellow emeritus at the Brookings Institution, who has just written a remarkably readable, eminently utilitarian, and uncommonly unpretentious book (for Washington DC think tanks!) -- “What Do We Do Now: A Workbook For The President-Elect” -- from which the theme of this TMR and the JFK quotation are taken.
Hess has been engaged in every presidential transition since Eisenhower-to-Kennedy, and has been a member of two blue-ribbon panels convened to make recommendations for Reagan-to-Bush and Clinton-to-Bush.
And as the country prepares for the most important presidential transition since Hoover-to-Roosevelt or Buchanan-to-Lincoln, “What Do We Do Now” is a book every serious political junkie ought to own.
Though Hess may blanch at the comparison, he's created a kind of “Cliff Notes” or “Transitions for Dummies.” He makes serious subject matter accessible -- easy but never breezy -- and in doing so, he's given interested observers an opportunity to evaluate this presidential transition, just like symphony-goers who take musical scores to concerts to know whether the conductor and the orchestra got it right.
Thanks to the scholarship of Hess and scores of other “transitionists”, here's TMR's take on what to look and listen for -- seven not-so-secret thoughts about doing it right.
o First, quickly assemble the White House staff.
The highest priority is to assemble the White House staff, including chief of staff, personnel director, counsel, press secretary, Congressional relations chief, even a speechwriter or two.
These people make the trains run on time, they're essential for the cabinet vetting process, they're there to deal with Congress, they give the new administration one voice, and they make an important statement about who's in charge -- because a new president doesn't need cabinet appointees freelancing on policy or politics.
They are the first line of offense and defense.
o Second, identify the key national security, homeland security, and economic security nominees ASAP.
It is critical to bring on board the key actors whose jobs are central to the Constitutional commitment to “insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence.”
This would include cabinet secretaries at Defense, Homeland Security, State, Treasury, and Justice. But also deputy and secondary posts in those agencies, as well as those responsible for counterterrorism and national emergency management, for example.
o Third, keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
Bring Congress into the act from the outset -- the leadership of both parties, key committee chairs, and Members who are known to have a vested interest in, knowledge of, and passion for the issues that will be central to those first 100 days.
It is always wise to consult with Congress, but it's too often given perfunctory attention and subsumed by the agenda of the new Administration. However, 2008 is not just another year and much is expected from the 44th presidency, thanks largely to the serial missteps of the 43rd.
With two wars being waged in the Middle East, a tottering national and global economy, and political instability fomenting in virtually every continent, reaching across the aisle and up Pennsylvania Avenue are not just figures of speech, they are essential steps in regaining our national strength and our international respect and prestige.
o Fourth, “Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun the frumious Bandersnatch!”
We turn to Lewis Carroll's, Jabberwocky, in search of a metaphor that will capture the importance of avoiding the avoidable errors and pitfalls -- the ones that use up precious political capital and spill blood in the waters.
For example, if you have in mind an Attorney General nominee who has broken the law -- speeding tickets are permissible, but tax liens are not -- take a pass, even if he is “best of class.”
Or, if you've promised to shut down Guantanamo, first figure out what legal and morally defensible options exist to relocate the detainees. On the other hand, if you made this a major campaign commitment, and the press presses you on this in the transition, have a good look in the mirror.
It's probably a good idea to resist the temptation to give the First Lady a substantive policy assignment, even if she is more qualified than anyone on the staff or in the cabinet.
o Fifth, be careful about bipartisanship.
Having just said that “reaching across the aisle and up Pennsylvania Avenue” is essential to the promotion of the national interest, this is a cautionary note about how best to accomplish those objectives.
It's about the much celebrated and somewhat seductive notion of bipartisan cabinet appointments.
Here are three things to bear in mind when conversation turns to the benefits of a bipartisan cabinet, and when comparison is made to JFK's appointments of Douglas Dillon at Treasury, Robert McNamara at Defense, and the offer to “Wise Man” Robert Lovett to take his choice of State, Defense, Treasury or Justice.
First, bipartisanship ain't what it used to be, and the road back is long and rocky.
Second, if the best choice for Treasury, Homeland Security, Interior, or State is a member of the other party, fine. But if the choice is being made primarily in the service of bipartisanship, that's a miscalculation of priorities.
Third, the tension and conflict in Washington DC isn't simply Republicans versus Democrats -- although there's plenty of that to go around -- it's about which branch of government has the power -- Congress or the Executive, Article I or Article II. To assume that a bipartisan cabinet will soften those R v. D battles is errant logic; and it's equally important to understand that it will be of no help with the more contentious schism between Congress and the Administration.
Additionally, it's important to acknowledge that the moment a member of the opposition party becomes a cabinet officer, it is assumed that she or he is “carrying water” for the President, so the asset becomes a limited liability or worse.
The best form of bipartisanship is regular consultation with members of both parties and between both branches of government. And in 2008, sadly, that is a very steep challenge. It's doable with great and sustained effort, but if the expectation is that the opposition will be grateful, remember those roseate predictions about American soldiers being greeted as liberators by Iraqis.
o Sixth, ignore siren calls.
There will be innumerable invitations to leap into the breach to become a “kind-of” President before Inauguration Day.
Ignore them.
They will come daily from the political press, a little less frequently from constituencies who aided in the electoral process, self-serving bundler-donors, and potentially from the sitting President who may invoke the notion that it is important for the President and President-elect to act together on questions of national security.
Ignore them and him.
Wait your turn. Take a cue from Lincoln in 1860 and FDR in 1932, both of whom (rightly) determined that they would “take office” when they “took office,” and not before -- much to the dismay and anger of Presidents Buchanan and Hoover.
o Seventh, “Break glass only in case of emergency.”
You've seen those safety warnings on trains, in buildings, and elsewhere. It's good advice for Presidents, and you could say that it's an analog to the West African proverb that President Theodore Roosevelt often quoted -- “Speak softly and carry a big stick.”
It's advice that could have made a big difference in the presidency of George W. Bush and his viceroy, Dick Cheney, lessons the next president must not ignore.
If the polls are accurate, Barack Obama may be on his way to an historically significant Electoral College and popular vote victory -- equal in impact if not necessarily electoral votes to Ronald Reagan's 1980 sweep of Jimmy Carter by a margin of 489 to 49 or to FDR's galloping defeat of Herbert Hoover in 1932 by an almost identical margin of 472 to 59.
If so, President-elect Obama will be well advised to be magnanimous in victory, respectful of those who voted for his opponent and members of Congress who lost their seats, and to demonstrate how resolve and humility can be partners in political leadership.
If by some improbable set of circumstances, the election of 2008 turns out like 1948 -- “Dewey Wins” -- then John McCain will every reason to be humble, respectful, and magnanimous.
No matter the outcome, the President-elect must be mindful that this election has been watched as closely in countries around the globe as at home, and to understand that their great hope -- as it is ours -- is that E Pluribus Unum is both this nation's enduring mission statement as well as a new commitment to global cooperation in the 21st century.
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